From - Wed Oct 16 20:19:05 1996 X-POP3-Rcpt: ez073888@peseta Received: from franc.ucdavis.edu by peseta.ucdavis.edu (8.8.0/UCD3.7.1) id TAA12482; Wed, 16 Oct 1996 19:23:56 -0700 (PDT) Received: from caleb.INS.CWRU.Edu by franc.ucdavis.edu (8.8.0/UCD3.7.1) id OAA11890; Wed, 16 Oct 1996 14:18:03 -0700 (PDT) Received: (aa440@localhost) by caleb.INS.CWRU.Edu (8.7.6+cwru/CWRU-2.3-bsdi) id QAA06020; Wed, 16 Oct 1996 16:59:13 -0400 (EDT) (from aa440) Message-Id: <199610162059.QAA06020@caleb.INS.CWRU.Edu> Date: Wed, 16 Oct 1996 16:59:13 -0400 (EDT) From: aa440@cleveland.Freenet.Edu (Dale Wedge) To: orphillips@ucdavis.edu Subject: Re: Condon Committee UFO Report Reply-To: aa440@cleveland.Freenet.Edu (Dale Wedge) Content-Type: text X-Mozilla-Status: 0011 Content-Length: 30562 In a previous article, xx044 (UFOlogy SIG) says: > When the United States Air Force decided in March 1969 to > >terminate the publicly acknowledged portion of its program for > >collection of UFO reports known as "Project Blue Book," and since the > >time it did so on December 17 ,1969, there has been no official > >governmental agency to which UFO sightings could be reported or from > >which explanations for continuing sightings could be expected. The > >termination of the project came on the heels of the release on > >January 8, 1969 of the now infamous study commissioned by the Air > >Force at the University of Colorado under the "scientific direction" > >of Edward U. Condon, Ph.D., who was at the time professor of Physics > >and Astrophysics at the university. Among a long list of significant > >accomplishments, Condon had been a member of the committee which > >established the top secret atomic bomb program during World War II. > >Twenty years after its release, it is now fair to judge that the > >Colorado study has become a permanent blemish on an eminent > >scientist's otherwise distinguished career. > > By 1972, when it became clear that UFOs would not just "go > >away" in the post-Condon Committee years, Condon became so frustrated > >by the avalanche of criticism he received for his participation in > >the botched study that he claimed to have destroyed all project files > >in his possession. Faced with the discrediting of his efforts, he > >remained curiously unapologetic for his activities until his death in > >March 1974. By that time he had withdrawn from further debate or > >defense of his findings and recommendations. His final public > >statement concerning UFOs, reported in the October 19, 1973 issue of > >the Pensacola News (Florida), quoted him lamely calling the > >continuing UFO reports "pretty much fantasy stuff." > > Given the obvious vested interest the Air Force had in the > >outcome of the project, it now appears rather naive to have expected > >that any study funded and commissioned by the Air Force which > >"coincidentally" selected Condon as project director, could have been > >any more objective than the CIA funded Robertson panel report > >(discussed below) had been. The disservice done to all of us by > >Condon and his adherants has been to delay potential scientific > >breakthroughs or solutions to the continuing UFO mystery. As > >Congressman William F. Ryan (N.Y.) correctly predicted on the House > >floor after release of the study, "Public interest in UFOs cannot be > >wished away and reported sightings will persist." > > This paper will consider the accuracy of the conclusions > >reached by Dr. Condon in view of the several contrary findings > >reported by his own staff members and examine how his interpretations > >and findings instead reflect those of the Robertson study and the > >opinions of Harvard astronomer Donald H. Menzel. The "weathering" of > >Condon's findings over the past 20 years will be reviewed, with > >particular emphasis on the theme of the 1989 MUFON Sympopsium (i.e. > >government secrecy concerning UFOs). > > At the very conception of this regrettable chapter in the > >history of Ufology, a "ticking bomb" was unwittingly placed in the > >project's records by Robert Low (the eventual project coordinator) > >who wrote his now infamous memo to university administrators in > >August of 1966, as they were considering whether to accept the Air > >Force contract. Low said, > > > > "...the trick would be to describe the project so that, > to the public, it would appear a totally objective > study but, to the scientific community, would present > the image of a group of non-believers trying their best > to be objective but having and almost zero expectation > of finding a saucer." (Emphasis added.) > > > Low suggested that the best way to accomplish this would be to > >emphasize the investigation of psychological and social factors of > >persons who reported UFOs, rather than examining the potential > >physical reality of the stimuli for the reports. Low felt the > >scientific community would "quickly get the message." > > Clearly, this is exactly the methodology adopted by Condon, > >who throughout the course of the study, refused to consider the truly > >puzzling hard core reports and chose to instead emphasize the "kook" > >cases typically written off by serious investigators. The four or > >five cases he personally investigated all involved contactees or > >outright hoaxes. In June of 1967, he went so far as to attend a New > >York City symposium held by contactee followers, and even took a bow > >from the audience. > > Condon's prejudices paralleled those of Harvard astronomer > >Donald H. Menzel, who also held a top secret clearance and was a > >reputed member of MJ-12. Calling himself "the man who shot Santa > >Claus," Menzel began in 1952 to outline his UFO theories in > >nationally published magazine articles. As would Condon later, he > >attributed the sightings to mirages caused by an assortment of > >natural phenomena such as temperature inversions, refractions, ice > >crystals and reflections. Menzel predicted that, "these saucers will > >eventually vanish--most appropriately, into thin air, the region that > >gave birth to them." Thirty-seven years later, UFOs have not only > >not vanished, but the reports have become more puzzling. Except as > >they may continue to be cited by uninformed skeptics, the validity > >of Menzel's and Condon's opinions have instead "vanished" as they > >have become largely irrelevant for modern serious study of the > >subject. > > The obvious negative biases about the subject which Condon > >found so difficult to conceal even in the early stages of the study > >ultimately destroyed whatever real credibility the Condon study may > >have had. In his letter of October 11, 1967 to the Denver Post, for > >example, Dr. Condon wrote: > > > > "What can be learned from the UFO project can make > valuable contributions to knowledge of atmospheric > effects and of people's behavior when observing them > under unusual conditions...we will be doing a great > public service if we can by teaching improve public > understanding to the point where many of the things now > seen and reported as UFOs become as fully understood as > eclipses...Many people find it extremely difficult not > to pass judgment before all the facts are in." (Cf. > Dr. Condon's speech of January 25, 1967 in which he > wrote off the whole subject when the project was in its > infancy). > "I believe that the great discovery of the > human race in the so-called scientific age is that the > study of nature by the calm, careful collection of > observations, and their analysis by rational thought > processes, is an extraordinarily powerful way of > learning about natural phenomena, and that the > application of such methods will also prove fruitful > here." (Emphasis added). > > > Condon was repeating opinions originally put forward in 1953 > >by Menzel, with the release of his first book, Flying Saucers, in > >which he asserted that UFO reports were all attributable to natural > >phenomena. Although holding no medical license or degree in > >psychology, he implicitly claimed sufficient "expertise" in those > >areas to determine that the problem was essentially psychological, in > >that Americans were suffering from "international jitters" and > >reported anything anomolous observed in the skies as a UFO because > >they worried about an atomic war. He "diagnosed" those persons who > >gave credence to the extraterrestrial hypothesis as "lunatics, > >cultists, religious fanatics, or, at best, frightened and confused." > > Notwithstanding his later disclaimers to the contrary, Condon > >held the same opinion, as evidenced by his drawing the following > >analogy, calling the comparison "cogent", concerning the difficulty > >in establishing that some UFOs could be extra-terrestrial: > > > > "The problem is more difficult than finding a needle in > a haystack; it is finding a piece of extra-terrestrial > hay in a terrestrial haystack, often on the basis of > believers in extra-terrestrial hay." (Emphasis added). > > > Yet, Condon claims that in evaluating the calibre of witnesses > >making UFO reports, the committee found that they are primarily > >normal and responsible individuals who are merely puzzled about what > >they saw and looking for explanations. "Only a very few are obviously > >quite emotionally disturbed, their minds being filled with pseudo- > >scientific, pseudo-religious or other fantasies." He found "rather > >less than some people may have expected in the way of psychiatric > >problems related to belief in the reality of UFOs as craft from > >remote galactic or intergalactic civilizations." > > Although the committee established a policy against any > >statements to the press before release of its final report, this > >prohibition did not extend to Dr. Condon himself and he freely > >excercised his privilege. In a speech made January 25, 1967 to the > >American Chemical Society and quoted in the next issue of the Elmira, > >New York, Star-Gazette, Dr. Condon indicated: > > > > "'It is my inclination right now to recommend that the > government get out of this business. My attitude right > now is that there is nothing to it'...With a smile he > added, 'but I'm not supposed to reach a conclusion for > another year...This just isn't a military problem; I > can't see where the national safety is at stake...Maybe > it would be a worthwhile study for those groups > interested in meteorological phenomena.'"(Emphasis > added) > > Here was the presumably "unbiased" scientific director of a > >panel of scientists, contracted and paid with tax dollars by the U.S. > >Air Force, reciting the major points of the project's final report > >which would ostensibly not be written for another year: (a) UFOs are > >not worth further serious study except as a "metorological" or social > >problem (b) there is no threat to the national security from UFOs and > >(c) the Air Force should remove itself from publicly admitted UFO > >responsibilities. > > > > The continued participation in the study by Dr. Condon in light of > >his many similar negative statements, raises serious question as to > >the actual purposes and motives behind Dr. Condon's selection to > >chair the committee. His admitted strong predisposition to reach a > >negative conclusion belied his later posturing that his primary > >concern was to staff the study with personnel of adequate scientific > >training, rather than with persons emotionally committed to extreme > >pro or con views on the subject. Obviously, this restriction did not > >apply to Dr. Condon. > > Predictably, Condon's interpretations in the final 1,485 page > >report two years later was identical to his initially expressed > >opinions, as he summarily dismissed the subject in the first two > >paragraphs of the first section, writing, "nothing has come from the > >study of UFOs in the past 21 years that has added to scientific > >knowledge...further extensive study of UFOs probably cannot be > >justified in the expectation that science will be advanced thereby." > > He recommended that scientists in agreement with this opinion > >turn their attention to other pursuits and suggested that those who > >disagreed would find in his report areas where existing studies are > >incomplete and requiring more accurate study. However, Condon > >cautioned against establishment of any new agency of the federal > >government for the scientific study of UFOs, although, "...this > >conclusion may not be true for all time." He recommended that > >nothing be done with UFO reports continuing to be received from the > >public "in the expectation that they are going to contribute to the > >advance of science." However, Condon was silent as to what, if > >anything, should be done with UFO reports continuing to be received > >from other sources. > > The final Condon Committee report was evaluted in November > >1968 by an eleven member panel the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) > >who agreed with Condon's conclusion that a systematic study of UFO > >reports would not increase scientific knowledge, but apparently > >confusing the UFO problem with the extraterrestrial hypothesis, > >gratutitously adding, "the least likely explanation of UFOs is the > >hypothesis of extraterrestrial visitations by intelligent beings." > >Like Condon, the NAS had distorted the stated goal of the study. The > >real issue was not whether UFO were extraterrestrial, but whether the > >reports had any basis in reality apart from the psychological makeup > >of the witnesses. > > > >...., in November 1970, a contrary conclusion was announced by the > >American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, which found it > >"difficult to ignore the small residue of well-documented but > >unexplainable cases which form the hard core of the UFO controversy" > >and found no basis for Condon's opinion that nothing of scientific > >value could come from continued UFO research. > > > > > > A common misperception among uninformed skeptics and others > >who have not studied the final Condon report in detail (reinforced by > >"expert" opinions such as those announced by the NAS) is that the > >study was intended to determine whether any UFO reports involved > >sightings of extraterrestrial craft and/or whether there existed any > >threat to national security arising from the reported phenomena. As > >stated by Condon in his Summary of the Study: "In setting up the > >Colorado project...the emphasis was on whether deeper study of > >unidentified flying objects might provide some 'additions to > >scientific knowledge.'" He specifically disclaimed any attempt to > >independently evaluate the Air Force conclusion that any of the UFO > >reports constituted any threat or hazard to national security. > > Therefore, it is difficult to reconcile the expansion of the > >study by Condon into areas for which no examination had been publicly > >authorized by the Air Force except to conclude that, in doing so, he > >was fulfilling some hidden agenda. Condon acknowledged that although > >unequivocal proof that UFOs are extraterrestrial would be the > >greatest scientific discovery in the history of mankind, the study > >found "...no direct evidence supporting the claim that any UFO > >reports studied represent spacecraft visiting Earth from another > >civilization." He facetiously qualified this conclusion, > >saying,"...no prediction is made for the future...If new evidence > >appears later, this report can be appropriately revised in a second > >printing." > > Moreover, Dr. Condon expands his analysis into areas of > >military defense concern also not within the limits within which the > >committee was established. He concluded that the defense function > >should be continued within extant intelligence and surveillance > >operations "without the continuance of a special unit such as Project > >Blue Book." He finds: > > > > "no evidence of secrecy concerning UFO reports. What > has been miscalled secrecy has been no more than an > intelligent policy of delay in releasing data so that > the public does not become confused by premature > publication of incomplete studies of reports." > > Amazingly, Condon then gratuitously adds, > > "Since 1953 the results of UFO study have been > unclassified, except where tangential reasons exist for > withholding details, as, for example, where sightings > are related to launchings of classified missles, or to > the use of classified radar systems...During the period > from March 1952 to the present, the structure for > handling UFO reports in the Air Force has been called > Project Blue Book." > "...We are assured that the federal government would > withhold no information on the subject, and that all > essential information about UFOs could be included in > this report." (Emphasis added) > > > > Reading Condon's final recommendations and conclusions > >together with the remainder of the study, one questios whether these > >are parts of the same report. Apparently, Dr. Condon relied only in > >part on the team studies and rather heavily on the personal opinions > >he had expressed the prior year. G gratuituously sprinkled > >throughtout Condon's final report are a number of unsupported > >opinions concerning matters never studied by the panel and outide the > >scope of the study. The Condon Committee was not contracted and did > >not study whether there existed any governmental secrecy in UFO > >matters, yet Condon offers in his summary that, > > > > "...It would be impossible to keep a secret of such > enormity for over two decades...no useful purpose would > be served by engaging in such an alleged conspiracy of > silence. One person with whom we have dealt actually > maintains that this super-secret matter is in the hands > of the Central Intelligence Agency which, he says, > installed one of its own agents (i.e. Condon) as > scientific director of the Colorado study. This story, > if true, is indeed a well kept secret. These > allegations of a conspiracy on the part of our own > government to conceal knowledge of the existence of > 'flying saucers' have, so far as any evidence that has > come to our attention, no factual basis whatever." > > > > > This was incorrect and Condon knew it. Had his > >representations been accurate, it would then be fair to expect that > >all "complete studies of reports" to date would have been released. > >Those significant documents which have been discovered have not been > >voluntarly released and efforts to force further disclosures through > >the FOIA confirm that thousands of pages of UFO related documents, > >many over several decades old and presumably of little intelligence > >value, continue to be withheld from the public behind a wall of > >obscure, sometimes contrived, "national security" excuses. > > The CIA had long maintained that it had no interest or > >involvment in the collection and/or analysis of UFO releated > >materials. Once classified CIA documents have established otherwise > >and confirm Condon's knowledge of, and participation in, the CIA's > >pretense of CIA noninvolvement in UFO related matters. CIA documents > >obtained through the federal courts confirm that CIA's National > >Photographic Interpretation Center (NPIC) analysed photographs > >studied by the Condon Committee with Condon's guarantee of secrecy > >and his promise to "make no reference to CIA in regard to this work > >effort." (See, ****** cited in Clear Intent, Fawcett and Greenwood, > >Prentice-Hall, 1984 pp. 141-142). > > Official policy concerning UFOs changed dramatically in 1953, > >primarily due to the recommendations of the CIA-sponsored Robertson > >panel and possibly motivated by considerations set out in the MJ-12 > >documents whose authenticity remain an open question at this time. > >In describing the history of UFOs to that point, Condon admitted that > >"early investigations were carried on in secrecy by the Air Force" > >and other foreign governments, but that with the large 1952 > >Washington D.C. flap and resulting "clogging" of military > >communications channels with sighting reports, a study was > >commissioned under the chairmanship of H.P. Robertson, professor of > >mathematical physics at the California Institute of Technology and a > >CIA classified employee. Interestingly, the panel also included > >physicist Lloyd V. Berkner, at the time a director of the Brookhaven > >National Laboratories, and reputed member of MJ-12. > > On the last day it met, the panel spent a few hours analyzing > >the UFO phenomenon before adjourning with the finding that UFOs > >presented no direct threat to national security and warning that > >having a military source foster public concern in what it called > >"nocturnal meandering lights" was possibly dangerous since the public > >might be encouraged by military involvment to believe in the > >existence of some potential threat. The panel recommended that UFOs > >be "debunked" so as to remove the aura of mystery surrounding the > >subject and a "public information campaign" be institued to produce a > >"better" understanding of the subject. > > In many ways, the Robertson panel findings are identical to > >those of the Condon report fifteen years later, and served a similar > >propaganda function with regard to promoting a "better understanding" > >of UFOs and assisting the Air Force with its public relations problem > >by permitting it to point to an "exhaustive" study by an "impartial" > >panel of prominent scientist who had fully examined the UFO > >phenomenon and found nothing of scientific interest nor any direct > >threat to national security. It is noteworthy that some of the > >panelists joked about the subject and expressed negative biases > >toward the subject, one member calling it "a complete waste of time," > >requiring investigation by "psychiatrists rather than physicists." > >Clearly, within fifteen years, when the Condon Committee was > >convened, the conclusions and recommendations of the Robertson panel > >were no more credible or valid than are those of the Condon Committee > >today. > > Again repeating and expanding upon the recommendations of the > >Robertson panel, and again without supporting studies by the panel > >for his conclusions, Condon proposed that the debunking effort be > >taken up by the educational system as well: > > > > "Teachers who find their students strongly motivated in > this direction should attempt to channel their > interests in the direction of serious study of > astronomy and meteorology, and in the direction of > criticl analysis of arguments for fantastic > propositions that are being supported by appeals to > fallacious reasoning of false data." > > Presumably, these suggestions also extend to critical analysis > >of the Condon report. The final report released to the public in > >January 1969 is a compilation of several sections, padded with > >superfluous technical material of little or no apparent connection to > >the UFO problem and written by several different persons. Although > >the final Condon Committee report failed to analyze more than a small > >fraction of the truly puzzling cases and did not report on most of > >the significant cases it listed in the report, a total of ninety-one > >cases are reviewed, including sixty-one listed as "identified" > >misperceptions, illusions or outright hoaxes. The remaining thirty- > >one cases are unexplained, leaving a significantly higher percentage > >of unexplained cases than the even Air Force found and which > >originally created the alleged need for the Condon study. > > Buried in the study's text, and ignored by Dr. Condon, are a > >number of rather incredible case studies and conclusions by the > >investigators who did examine a few of the truly puzzling cases, such > >as, "The apparent rational intelligent behavior of the UFO suggests a > >mechanical device of unknown origin as the most probable explanation > >of this sighting...[and]...the probability that at least one genuine > >UFO was involved appears to be fairly high." In another case, the > >analysis reports that the sighting, "defies explanation by > >conventional means," and in another, "This is one of the few UFO > >reports in which all factors investigated, geometric, psychological > >and physical appear to be consistent with the assertion that an > >extraordinary flying object, silvery, metallic, disk-shaped, tens of > >meters in diameter and evidently artificial, flew within sight of two > >witnesses." Perhaps the classic "double-speak" evaluation in the > >case analyses is the conclusion that one "unusual sighting should > >therefore be assigned to the category of some almost certainly > >natural phenomenon which is so rare that it apparently has never been > >reported before or since." (Emphasis added) > > The panel's methodology failed to correlate the patterns in > >the truly puzzling reports studied and formulate hypotheses to > >account for them, but instead emphasized fitting each individual > >report into a prosaic, sometimes farfetched, explanation. This > >methodology was crystallized in Condon's directive to the panel that, > >"if an (sic) UFO report can be plausibly explained in ordinary terms, > >then we accept that explanation even though not enough evidence may > >be available to prove it beyond all doubt...the problem (is) that of > >learning to recognize the various kinds of stimuli that give rise to > >UFO reports," > > > > "We placed very little value for scientific purposes on > the past accumulation of anecdotal records, most of > which have been explained as arising from sightings of > ordinary objects. Accordingly, I have recommended in > Section I against mounting a major effort for > continuing UFO study for scientific reasons." > > Condon appends to the end of his conclusions a few paragraphs > >critical of the congressional hearings before the House Committee on > >Science and Astronautics on July 29, 1968: > > > > "The symposium of 29 July afforded (scientists > testifying before Congress) an occasion on which, with > utmost seriousness, they could put before the Congress > and the public the best possible data and the most > favorable arguments for larger government activity in > this field. Hence it is fair to assume that the > statements presented in thast symposium represent the > maximum case that this group feels could be made. We > welcome the fact that this symposium is available to > the public and expect that its data and arguments will > be compared with those in this report of this study by > those whose duty it is to make responsible decisions in > this area." > > The old saying that, "he who pays the piper calls the tune," > >is no less true because of its age. The Robertson and Condon studies > >arranged and paid for, respectively, by the CIA and Air Force at > >times of intense public and congressional pressure for "something" to > >be done about UFOs. The final reports of these studies and the > >unsupported statements made by otherwise coherent scientists are not > >well grounded in a logical progression of analysis, but rather, > >emphasize ad hominem arguments or examples of hoaxes, illusions and > >misidentifications having no relation to the truly puzzling cases > >which continue to be reported. Some of the reasoning employed is > >indeed so vaccuous as to raise serious doubt about the veracity and > >credibility of these otherwise reasonable scientists. Either these > >men, being subject to some inexplicable "blindspot" to the subject, > >were unable to fully focus their otherwise considerable mental > >abilities on an objective analysis of the UFO materials they claimed > >to have "fully studied," or their conclusions were intentionally > >grounded in something other than objective scientific analysis. > > It is no coincidence that Condon, Menzel and members of the > >Robertson panel, all scientists with high security clearances who > >worked under contract with the military and intelligence agencies > >repeatedly parroted official Air Force and CIA statements about UFOs. > > After the 1952 sightings over Washington, D.C., Menzel > >(otherwise one of the most eminent physical scientists in American > >history) reasoning by human analogy, concluded that the objects could > >not be extraterrestrial because if "they" had spaceships they would > >also have radio by which they would have contacted us. "They would > >get off their ships and have a look at us. Wouldn't you on Venus?" > > As did the Air Force, CIA, Condon the Robertson panel, Menzel > >claimed that although there was "nothing to the UFO reports," the > >sightings themselves represented a potential threat to national > >security. Ten years later, as the UFO reports escalated instead of > >"vanishing into thin air," Menzel rehashed these same opinions in his > >second book, UFOs, The World of Flying Saucers, (1963). He claimed > >that in the short time it met, the Robertson Committee had analyzed > >"every available act of evidence" about UFOs and found no support for > >the extraterrestrial hypothesis, concluding that the "UFO hysteria" > >was "dying a slow and lingering death." > >-- > > > > > >-- > > > > >